Low emission European energy scenarios

About the research

Many countries face all of the three following environment and energy problems:

• reducing the impacts of air pollution on human health and ecosystems
• controlling climate change and its impacts
• securing long term energy supplies adequate for providing services to people and the economy.

This research describes work that explores policy measures for addressing this trinity of problems in the European Union.

Across Europe, policy makers face the challenges of reducing the impacts of air pollution on human health and ecosystems, mitigating climate change and its consequences, and securing long term energy supplies adequate for providing services to people and the economy. This project constructed six low emission energy scenarios that achieve these environmental, social and economic goals for twenty-five countries of the European Union.

Energy consumption is a major cause of carbon dioxide emission, and also largely determines the uncontrolled emissions of many other pollutants. In consequence, energy scenarios are key inputs to the projection of pollution emission, and the formulation of strategies to reduce pollution and achieve environmental objectives. Alternative energy strategies including behavioural change, demand management, energy efficiency, and low carbon fuels are explored in this report. In addition to abating greenhouse gas emissions, these strategies can facilitate cheaper and greater abatement of other atmospheric pollutants as compared to higher carbon scenarios. In general, achieving a given air pollution emission target costs less in a low carbon scenario than in a high carbon scenario. This work is aimed at producing policies that exploit the positive synergy between strategies to limit global warming, and strategies for reaching other environmental objectives such as reduced acidification and improved air quality. Low carbon energy scenarios can improve energy security by reducing the consumption if finite fuels and reducing import requirements.

The given objective was to produce scenarios in which the total emission of carbon dioxide from the twenty-five countries of the European Union is reduced by at least 30% over the period 1990 to 2020. To this end scenarios have been produced for each of the twenty-five EU countries taking into account recent historical data and assumed economic and population growths taken from other studies, and selections of policies measures.

Methodology

The work is in two basic parts: first, develop one energy scenario for each EU25 country in which CO2 emissions are significantly controlled for the period 2005 to 2020 such that total EU CO2 emission is reduced by at least 30% by 2020 as compared to 1990, second, adjust and convert the scenario energy data to be consistent with data inputs to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA‘s) Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. This work is accomplished in the following steps:

1. Update databases. Build historical energy balances from IEA energy data.
2. Set targets for CO2 in 2020.
3. Set constraints on NEOP (non end-of-pipeline) measures. Particularly important are assumptions about nuclear power.
4. Construct scenarios so as to meet energy goals such as minimising net energy trade into the EU, so as not to effectively ‘export‘ energy and environment problems, and to improve energy security. The scenarios utilise a mix of NEOP measures such that goals are met for each EU25 country. A model called SEEScen (Society, Energy and Environment Scenario) is used. The Low carbon energy scenarios for the EU25 July 2007 assume that extra CO2 abatement measures were introduced in 2008, and it is from this date that the scenarios would diverge.
5. Output the scenario energy flows and costs for each country, and for the EU25 as a whole.
6. Transfer energy data into a form suitable for IIASA’s GAINS model, and run the GAINS model.

Results/Outcome

The central scenario shows that, as compared to 1990 levels, CO2 reductions of more than 30% are feasible by 2030, and similar reductions on pollutants such as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Variant scenarios further explore the impact of a range of behavioural and technological changes and show that larger reductions are possible, especially in the longer term as technologies with long lifetimes such as power stations, are replaced. Apart from emission control, the policy options lead to a reduction in the import of finite fossil and fissile fuels into the EU and so they enhance supply security in a world with increasing competition for these dwindling resources.

Publications

Barrett M. (2007) Low Emission Energy Scenarios for the European Union, (Research report funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency). Retrieved 11 September 2013 from http://128.40.58.147/markbarrett/Energy/EnergyEU/EuroScen_0707.pdf

The findings have also been presented at a series of intergovernmental events and conferences:

• the Sweden ASTA ‘Saltsjöbaden’ workshop (Gothenburg, March 2007)
• the European Commission programme on National Emission Ceilings and Policy Instruments (Vienna, March 2007)
• the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modeling (Prague, May 2007)
• the Centre for European Policies Studies European Energy Conference (Brussels, November 2007)
• the Swedish Environment Agency and members of Swedish Parliament (Stockholm, January 2008)
• the Catalonian Conferences for a Sustainable and Non Nuclear Future (Barcelona, April, 2008)