About the research
A lot of government and media attention has recently focused on young people who are classified as ‘NEET’ (not in employment, education or training). This in turn has created widespread interest in examining the underlying factors that tend to disrupt career and educational paths early in adult life.
This study draws on the British Cohort Study to examine two possible factors: early uncertainty and misalignment in occupational aspirations. The findings indicate that young people with uncertain or misaligned aspirations at age 16 are much more likely to become NEET by age 18. Furthermore, uncertainty and misalignment factors are both more widespread and more detrimental for those from poorer backgrounds.
These research findings suggest that, relative to young people with high and aligned ambitions and those with higher educational expectations than their aspired career, young men with mismatched aspirations and educational expectations were almost twice as likely to become NEET. Young women with misaligned ambitions were three times as likely to become NEET.
In short, this study illustrates that there is certainly a link between young people’s aspirations for future occupations and their labour market outcomes. Educational attainment appears to be increasingly important in shaping young people’s life chances and transition to adulthood – something likely to have impacted especially the poorest and lowest-achieving young people. Finally, realistic occupational expectations depending on educational performance and adequate knowledge of available post-16 job options could result in effective plans for employment destinations after compulsory schooling.
Methodology
The analysis is based on the cohort members with complete data for the key factors of interest, namely occupational aspirations and educational expectations at age 16, and NEET status between age 16 and 18 (3,163 women and 2,202 men). Logistic regression has been employed to estimate the impact of aspirations on NEET status. Separate estimations were performed for male and female cohort members. The impact of misaligned and uncertain aspirations on NEET status was first estimated, controlling for parental social class, cohort members’ educational expectations and whether they were teenage parents. The variables measured from birth to age 16 were included as potential controls. Finally, interactions between ambitions and parental social class were taken into consideration to estimate whether the relationship between uncertain aspirations and NEET status was different for youth in different social classes.
Publications
Yates, S., Harris, A., Sabates, R. and Staff, J. (2011) ‘Early occupational aspirations and NEETs: a study of the impact of uncertain and misaligned aspirations and social background on young people’s entry into NEET status’, Journal of Social Policy, 40(3), pp. 513-534. doi: 10.1017/S0047279410000656 Retrieved 2 September 2013 from https://www.princeton.edu/~angelh/Website/Studies/Article%2010%20%28Journal%20Social%20Policy%20-%20LSE%20%2710%29.pdf